The Way This Bizarre Campaign Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.

Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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